Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
